This article was published in “International
Journal of Computing Anticipatory Systems, 2007, vol. 18, pp. 86 - 101.
Computer Simulation of
Evolution:
Vladimir
F.Levchenko, Vladimir V.Menshutkin
I.M.Sechenov
Institute of Evolutionary Physiology and Biochemistry, St. Petersburg, 194223,
Russia. Fax: +7 812 5523219, e-mail: lew@iephb.nw.ru, vvm@emi.nw.ru,
http://www.iephb.nw.ru/labs/lab38/
Keywords: simulation, evolution, informational
processes, meme, cultural transmission.
Any living organism
represents good example of anticipatory system: in every moment of time it
attempts to forecast own future in order to survive.
Within a framework of such philosophy, the biosphere evolution is consequence of
functioning of the biosphere to provide permanent self-preserving, and this
functioning is anticipatory one. From this, investigation of evolution, including computer simulation,
can give some insight about universal ways of development for any anticipatory
systems.
The
biological evolution is very long-time process, which can't be studied directly. In fact,
the simulation is one of few ways of evolutionary investigations. The attempts to
simulate the biological evolutionary processes were already undertaken several
times by different scientists. Usually, some macro-regularity (for example, the
knowledge about dynamics of growing for real evolutionary trees - Fink, 1986)
is used to build such models. Our approach is different: we try to obtain macro-laws of behavior
for some ensemble of individuals (e.g. populations), setting different properties
of these
individuals and their surroundings. In particular, we assign the regulations of interactions between individuals and
preset rules of mutations for some of the properties. After that we start our
“evolutionary computer game”. At first sight, as the number of individuals is large
the quantity of theoretically
possible states for all system is very big and therefore such approach can't help
for understanding of real
evolution. But this is not the case here. The situation looks like ideal
gas, when there is no
need to monitor the behavior of every molecule if we attempt to
study universal
macro-laws, which describe all molecular ensemble. To discover some common laws of
biological evolution, regulating properties of
environment and species
populations was the purpose of our simulation (Levchenko, 1993, 2004).
In order to make sure that model is correct it is necessary to
compare the results of simulation with known materials. If they are similar to
modeled ones then one can hope that other results of the simulation describe
some new regularity. We aspired to use such approach as much as it is possible.
It is important to note that although the final states of simulated
system can be theoretically predicted for every realization but practically
this is impossible because the behavior of components of the system is very
intricate. Moreover,
one must as a rule make very large quantity of calculations in order to
accomplish any such prediction. This is one of
reasons why it is not possible to guess beforehand common laws of behavior of
all system. In order to find out these laws it is necessary to make many
experiments with different initial parameters and compare the results. Obviously, the
possibility to carry out great number of evolutionary experiments under
different conditions (what we are not able to accomplish in real nature!),
demonstrate unique capacity of simulation methods.
The factors, which can influence evolution, are very numerous in
reality. Simulation models described below were developed to investigate evolutionary
regularities in macro scale. We did
not try to predict the appearing of concrete forms, our aim was to
clear up general laws of the evolutionary processes, for example, changes of rapidity of formation of new species under different modeled parameters.
Therefore, only certain ecological properties of populations as well as general
principles of interactions between them (including Darwinian) are considered in
our
models.
It is
significant that biological terminology, which is used to describe the results
of modeling, is metaphorical one. This is partly due to the fact that classical
biological terminology is based on the conception of biological classification,
which doesn't suppose gradual species evolution: any species can arise or
perish but not evolve. Such “paradigm of stationarity” hampers any
discussions about macro- and micro-evolution (i.e. evolution at the species
level). In fact, it
could be more correctly to discuss genetic drift and gradual evolutionary changes of phenotypes but
unfortunately the corresponding biological evolutionary terminology is not enough developed yet
(Alimov, Levchenko, Starobogatov, 1998; Levchenko, 1993, 2002; Starobogatov,
Levchenko, 1993).
2.1 The Description of the Model
The idea to simulate
evolution of some biological groups as well as first programs for that were
proposed by Vladimir Menshutkin at the beginning of 80th (Menshutkin,
Aschepkova, 1988). The simulation program, which joins previous approaches, was
developed on the end of 80s; it was written by us in Fortran language and named
“Macrophylon” (Levchenko, Menshutkin, 1987). Several
additions to this model were made further after some experiments give unexpected
effects (see below and Levchenko, Menshutkin, Tsendina, 1988). Later, Kirill Essin converts the
program to C language for IBM/PC. One of loadable versions of the program may
be found in http://www.evol.nw.ru/lew/macrophylon/macrophylon.htm .
The program functions by cycle.
The properties of each simulated
population may be being
changed at every
cycle. The model has 12 different “environments” which are called licenses; some of
licenses can be free at either moment of the time (such approach has allowed us to propose also the
license-symbiotic conception for the ecosystem evolution - see Starobogatov,
Levchenko, 1993; Levchenko, 1997, 2004). Each license has up to 10
sub-environments (regions), every of which may be inhabited by only one species
population. Thus, every
license can contain
populations of one or several species. In order to rough estimate the size of
population we use the quantity of
its copies in license. Not
difficult to see that maximal amount of different simulated populations may achieve
120.
Any
population of the model
is described by means
of 25 different characteristics – features (they are represented by
special array in the program). Every feature has several gradations - properties
and therefore any population has combination of 25 some properties. Examples of
features: size (properties are here the following: from 0.5 M to 1 M, from 1 M
to 2 M, from 2 M to 5 M), type of upper and lower extremities, type of nourishment. The total
amount of all possible properties is 100 in the model.
With some probability, mutations
produce changes in the set of properties of population (not more than one
change per property during one cycle). In the view of biology it is more
correctly to call these modeled mutations as macro-mutations because they produce quite
considerable modifications of phenotypes (see about macro-evolution Grant, 1985; Rensch,
1960). The modifications lead to the changes of survival possibilities of
populations
in licenses. Special array
determines
the set of possible mutations. For example: A <-> B <-> C, where A,
B, C are properties within some feature; the transition from A to C isn't
impossible, it is necessary to make two steps: A ->B, then B -> C. The mutation frequency can be varied in every experiment.
The
properties, which cannot exist simultaneously, are called incompatible properties. For example: if
skull does not exist, then any mutation of tooth
cannot occur. Mutants, which appear with incompatible
combinations of properties, are being eliminated from further simulation.
Each
property is
characterized by its adaptive value, which is ranked
between 0 and 10 for every license. Special table was constructed for this
purposes; it is based upon general biological considerations. For example: the adaptive value for gills
in aquatic licenses
is equal to 10, but it is 0 on land. The possibility to
survive or, in other words, fitness of population in every license is
the sum of corresponding adaptive values for all 25 properties. Fitness
can range from 25 (minimum) to 250 (maximum); if the value of one of any
properties is equal to 0, then fitness value is set to zero. That means the population can't live in the license.
Migration of any population from one license to another may occur if its fitness
is higher there. For this to occur, one of the following conditions must be met: either new license is free and migrating
population gains higher fitness than in currently occupied license, or fitness
of migrating population is higher than fitness of one of populations,
which already exist in license (then native population is replaced by migrant). We may also regulate the number of attempts for migration if several of them were unsuccessful because the license was occupied.
Moreover, some additional barriers for migrations between licenses can be
introduced to the model as well.
Simulation
of competition is one of the main segments of
the
simulation. Those populations,
which have the lowest fitness in a license, are being replaced by populations, which have the highest fitness in this
license, at every cycle.
After many experiments with above model we have arrived at an idea to
introduce additional parameters in order to regulate the level of
competition. These parameters give a possibility to simulate what we call as “soft competition”
when we permit coexistence
of several populations with different fitness in license. The difference is not higher usually
than one - two tens of percents of average fitness for the license.
At last, in
order to simulate the predator-prey interactions, several licenses were defined which have to be
occupied entirely by predators. Predators can eliminate some "weak"
and easy prey
(fitness of prey is not enough
to resist predators) without even migrating into prey's licenses. However,
if there is no prey, fitness values of predators diminish significantly (Levchenko, Menshutkin, Tsendina,
1988).
Very
simplified functional scheme of the “Macrophylon” algorithm is presented
in the Figure 1. Even initial version of the program was very complicated;
it contained large number of arrays, loops, logical ramifications and more than thousand of operators.
At
the beginning of simulation we place one population in one of licenses. Every cycle
of the model involves the following operations:
mutations, elimination of populations with incompatible
properties, calculation of fitness values for all
populations in all licenses, migrations
(when it is possible), simulation of competition in every license, colonization of unoccupied parts of licenses, simulation of predator-prey interactions (when it is possible), recording of
properties of all populations and other current parameters on hard disc, return to the beginning of cycle.
The model, hence, simulates certain classical basic evolutionary phenomena: mutation, elimination of non-viable individuals, migration and colonization processes, competitive exclusion of some species population by another species populations.
Our model has demonstrated also very important role of interactions between populations: the form of
evolutionary trees depends primarily on the level of competition, not mutations. Therefore,
additional parameters to examine this effect were introduced (see below and Levchenko,
Menshutkin, Tsendina, 1988; Levchenko, 1993, 2004).
The total
time of some experiments was to several tens of minutes (we used PDP-11 and
later Pentium-I). This circumstance was one of principal restrictions, which
didn’t permit to complicate the program.

Figure 1. Simplified functional diagram of “Macrophylon”
simulation model. Every main program cycle is being begun from “Calculation of
fitness…” and is being finished at “Mutation…”. Other explanations are given in
text of the article.
2.2 Some Results of the
Macro-Evolution Simulation
In order to
have a possibility to compare the results of simulation with biological data,
we selected the phylum Chordata and began simulation experiments from Lanceolatus
(lancelet) form. Single population of lancelet was placed to a sea-water license. Modeled mutations were in general agreement with the principal changes
in adaptive properties: important changes in size, modification of types of nourishment and
respiration, etc.
The estimated time, which was necessary in reality to undergo such adaptive
changes, is about 0.5 - 2 million
years. This means, that here we have
to talk about macro-mutations. The 12 licenses of this simulation were the
following: 1 - 4
for different plankton and benthos sea-water forms, 5 – 7 for fresh-water
forms, 8 - 9
for Amphibia forms, 10 – 12 for terrestrial forms (about
any details see Levchenko, Menshutkin, Tsendina, 1988).

Figure 2. The example of macro-evolution simulation (screen
photo by Kirill Essin). At the left part vertically - the numbers of licenses,
at the center area - horizontal lines represent not empty licenses, diagonal lines mean migrations of new
evolutionary forms between licenses 1 (sea-water) and 5 (fresh-water). The numerals 5, 15, 25 across are the numbers of
cycles. At the right area - the same events in
licenses 1 and 5 in details after 11 cycles. Lines represent fragments
of evolutionary trees disposed
horizontally. Bifurcation can happen after appearance of mutant; when a population is being competitively eliminated
then the corresponding line is interrupted. At the bottom of the picture - the
average fitness values (AS) in different licenses (NL).
Macro-mutations, migrations and competition took place
at each cycle (see Figure 1); one program run is covering the period of 200 - 300 million years (several hundreds of cycles). Such
duration
corresponds to period of evolution of Chordata including
the appearing of Primates. One of examples of the
outputs is shown on Figure 2, where evolutionary events are given on two
different scales. Time of work of simulation program
for the
case represented in the picture achieves about one minute.
Simulation studies of
macro-evolution have demonstrated
certain unexpected effects which, nevertheless, follow from Darwinian theory (this wasn't obviously at the
beginning of investigations). For example, our results have shown that
"re-immigration of descendants" is quite significant factor in
evolution - see Figure 3.

Figure 3. The example of evolutionary trees: re-immigration of
descendants leads to elimination of parent forms. Across - the different
licenses, the time is upward, x means elimination of population by
another one.

Figure 4. Example of evolutionary trees: a –
“hard” competition, b – “middle” level of competition, c – “soft” competition.
The numbers of licenses are across, the time is upward, x means elimination
of population by another population.
Another
interesting and new results were obtained in experiments
concerning variations of parameters for competitive interactions. We have found that hard competition
provokes such situation when specialization processes predominate over
processes of infill of free licenses - see Figure 4. Not difficult to see that
in the case of hard competition, the lateral branches of evolutionary trees
grow slowly. The increase of frequency of mutations promotes only strengthening
of this tendency.
If the environmental
conditions are changed then “specialists”, which have arisen as a result
of hard competition (at the left), perish because of they are not able to give
new evolutionary forms and migrate to other licenses. The “generalists“
(Rautian, 1988), which arisen under conditions of soft competition, give new
forms after environment have changed (Levchenko, Menshutkin, Tsendina, 1988;
Levchenko, 1993, 2004). Such forms may colonize other licenses (at the right).
As
simulation contains all data about modeled populations, we can compare
“true” evolutionary trees with different their reconstructions when data isn't complete (i.e.
some of the population properties are excluded from descriptions of species).
The cluster analysis reconstructions demonstrate that frequent migrations
between close licenses (see Figures 3 and 4) are not being usually taken into account
and, hence, these
reconstructions give frequently incorrect images of evolution (Levchenko, 1993).
Above we said
that model uses basic mechanisms discussed in different evolutionary theories,
including classical theory of Charles Darwin (1872): mutations, migrations
between regions with different environments, competition when more suitable
survives. Some of outputs
of this simulation coincide
with what is known in evolutionary biology and this convinces of accuracy of the model and our
understanding of evolutionary mechanisms. Some of such results are presented below:
1) The
probability of evolutionary returning to an initial form is very low; evolution
is non-reversible;
2) The
appearance of concrete biological form isn't predetermined; this is result of
complicated combination of random events;
3)
Nevertheless, some characteristics of evolutionary process in the scale of all
system of licenses (speed of growth of evolutionary trees, speed of filling of
licenses etc) depend principally on only several main parameters, in
particular, level of competition and intensity of mutations. This suggests an
idea to some predestination of life evolution in the biosphere scale
(Levchenko, 1992, 2004);
4) Highly
specialized forms (“specialists”) don't evolve usually to new biological forms
(Alimov, Levchenko, Starobogatov, 1997; Levchenko, 1993, 1999);
5) Evolution has irregular
character (Eldredge,
Gould, 1972) even if
conditions are invariable.
But
it follows that other unexpected outcomes of simulation (see above) can be
considered as highly probable hypotheses. As the aim of this article is not to present
our separated models in details we shall not describe here other particular
results. It is more interesting and important that model of
macro-evolution confirms
the correctness of Charles Darwin approach, but - it is significant -
not all suppositions of Darwinists, for example about dominating role of
intensity of mutations (see
above and Grant, 1985). The understanding of that allows us to
choose more confidently
directions and methods of further evolutionary
investigations, as well as helps to clear
up how different evolutionary tendencies are interconnected with each other.
2.3 The Development of the Model
Toward Ecosystem Studies
In the
described above model
the ecological relationship,
which have very important significance in real evolution (Capra, 1996;
Gore, 1993; Levchenko, 1993, 2004; Maturana, Varela, 1980; Rautian, 1988;
Starobogatov, Levchenko, 1993), are not enough considered. To investigate more
these effects, the special simulation program was elaborated (Levchenko, 1993). The main principles
of its construction
were the same as for the above model but the species populations are abstract
here, i.e. here aren’t
implied either known biological forms. Moreover, there
are only two systems of licenses: for “animals” and for “plants”
(consumer-resource model).
Such simple ecosystem “construction” looks like complicated lichen in
some aspects (Odum, 1975). If the flows of matters constitute closed circulation
in this
ecosystem then it is living. If the circulation is disturbed (for example
because of some evolutionary variations of populations) then the ecosystem may collapse and
perishes.
The experiments have given the following interesting result: the ecosystem is surviving
long time under evolutionary changes of populations, only if some of the directions of
evolution are prohibited.
Otherwise, the populations of parasitic forms arise and they demolish finally the system
because the
circulation of matter
is being disrupted. One can suppose, therefore, that the basic populations
of existing stable ecosystems are not able to produce new evolutionary forms
under usual conditions (Levchenko, 1993, 2004; Menshutkin, Levchenko, 1988).
3 Simple Simulation Model of Human Civilization
Evolution
3.1 The Description
of the Model
Our new simulation
model uses similar principles as in the above models but it concerns the
evolution of human populations. The program was written in Visual Basic
language using some ideas from our previous works (Menshutkin, Aschepkova,
1988; Levchenko, Menshutkin, 1987; Levchenko, Menshutkin, Tsendina, 1988;
Menshutkin, Levchenko, 1988) and new monograph of Vladimir Levchenko (2004). Of
course, the opinions and views of many biologists, who worked in the field of
biological and human evolution, were considered (Capra, 1996; Gore, 1993;
Gorshkov, 1994; Gumilyov, 1990; Maturana, Varela, 1980; Rindoš,
1985; Rosen, 1991; Vernadsky, 1989;
Zherihin, 1987).
In reality every human sub-population
(more exactly - ethno-population, see Levchenko, 2003, 2004) is conjoined with some
complex of surrounding conditions in which it can successfully live. Central
particularity, which distinguishes the man evolution from classical biological
one, is that the interaction
between human-populations and environment is controlled by human culture
(complex of mental and material means for self-preserving of the ethnos - see
Levchenko, 2004). Modifications of these interactions are coordinated with cultural changes,
which may occur, for example, because of cultural transmission (Brody,
2001; Gore, 1993). The “meme language” (Dawkins, 1976) gives a chance to discuss “cultural
mutations” and cultural transmission: meme (from “memory”) is some analog of gene, which was introduced
for description of cultural information.
As in the cases of above models we
tried to use such mechanisms and parameters, which can be explained in the language of
evolutionary ecology. Here are some analogies for mutations (but of memes),
migrations of ethno-populations between licenses, competition interactions of
ethno-populations etc. In order to describe cultural transmission, additional
special parameter was introduced: probability of meme transmission between
different cultures. In biological language such meme exchange can be
interpreted as what is called “horizontal transfer of information” (this
mechanism at genetic level is being discussed by biologists during long time
for viruses and sometimes more developed organisms). Moreover, we used also the
parameter of live time of ethno-populations; this time can't be more
than 1000 years by estimation of prominent Russian historian Lev Gumilyov
(1990). We were obligated to use this evaluation as some fact to simplify the
model.
We assigned
as meme-mutations in this model the appearance of new discoveries and
technical inventions in human culture. Of course, these are “macro-meme-mutations” in fact.
They can promote survival and development for ethnos-populations. The nature of human knowledge is
such that every new discovery and invention is possible only after some ensemble of
previous discoveries already exists (for example, many physical laws were found
only after energy
conservation law was formulated).
Therefore the special oriented graphs of known
important discoveries and inventions were built; the
graphs permit only certain variants for the meme-mutations. Obviously, concrete “itineraries” of discoveries for every simulation
experiment were different, but in any case the arithmetic was somewhere at
first steps, while nuclear physics - at the ending. The
probability of mutations for any ethno-population grows since its “young age” to “maturity”
and then the probability is
being decreased to “old age”. Besides, the
probability can be regulated by special parameter, which is named as passionarity
(from “passion”). L.Gumilyov (1990) proposed this term to explain
explosions of ethno-development: passionarity provokes human activity in
creative spheres.
The scientific discoveries can lead to technical progress and, thus, to the intensification of using of surroundings resources. The model considers the technical development twice: as additional possibility to development of ethno-population (growth, expansion to other regions) and as source of new environmental pollutions (Gorshkov, 1994).

Figure 5. “Cell-map” of Earth territories, which was
used in the simulation.
The
natural habitats in the model are defined by simplified cell-map of Earth - see
Figure 5. The migration of ethno-population is possible to neighboring cell if
it contains necessary natural resources (different for every concrete
ethno-population), and if it has not big level of pollutions (the number of ethno-population decreases
along spending of resources and increasing of pollutions). Of course, difficult environments
are considered also, some of them, for example Antarctica, are excluded from this simulation in order to simplify the
model (Figure 5). Besides, one of the following conditions
has to be satisfied: 1) new cell is free, or 2) fitness of migrating population
is more than fitness of population, which is already living
in the cell. The probability of migration can be regulated by special
parameter. When a population colonizes some cell and when native
habitants are there eliminated,
their useful
cultural attainments are being transmitted
to the
colonizer population. At last,
there are some additional rules, for example: only when the
corresponding means of travel are invented (e.g., ships, aircrafts) then migration to distant cell becomes to be
possible.
Informational
exchange between different ethno-populations can be
also regulated: not all discoveries can be transmitted
right away after their beginnings. There is some probability for that. This
exchange can promote the increasing of survival. Before elaboration of radio
and Internet the informational exchange was allowed
only for neighboring cells.
3.2 Some Preliminary
Results and Discussion
The
experiments with the model are not finished and general construction of computer
program as well as some its fragments are still being modified. Therefore, only some simple results are presented below.
The Figure 6
and 7 gives the pictures of development of human civilization for different
parameters of the model. The first one illustrates the case of “calm” changes,
when passionarity, probability of migrations and informational exchange have
such values to get the image, which looks like known from human history until the middle of XX
century. One can see that settlement of new regions is going quite slow (about 3000 years), resources are
being spent
not too fast and
therefore the environmental
conditions are not disturbed along almost all simulated period.
The
Figure 7 gives the image of fast changes because of passionarity and probability of
migrations are large.
This leads not only to acceleration of scientific and technical development during
some epochs but also to resources depletion and essential worsening of environment. One of consequences
of that is
the following: evident oscillations of the population number are taking place along
evolution. Self-restoration
of environment is one of reasons of the oscillations; the process look like the situation of so called “punctuated equilibria” (Eldredge,
Gould, 1972; Zherikhin, 1987). Increasing in the number happens either after
occupation of new territories or after using of important technical inventions
(for example, of nuclear
energy on the last steps of the simulation). It is
interesting that large oscillations of number and of
ethno-diversity hamper scientific and technical development, so this suggests an idea to some optimal rapidity of variations
of
environment and features of human sub-populations.

Figure 6. The evolution of human civilization under conditions of slow scientific
and technical development. At the left part
vertically – “miner” - mineral resources in some abstract units, “mem” -
quantity of “macro-memes”; at the right part vertically - number of people in abstract units (numerals give sum of numbers of
all man sub-populations in simulation). 1 - the number of all people on the Earth, 2 - number of cells with
habitants, 3 - ethno-diversity, 4 - the quantity of scientific discoveries
(scientific “macro-memes”), 5 - the quantity of technical inventions (technical
“macro-memes”),
6 - coal and other mineral resources, 7 - oil and gas resources.

Figure 7. The evolution of human civilization under conditions of fast scientific and technical development. Notations are the same as in the Figure 6.
It
is important to note that any results of the simulation
have probabilistic nature because generator of random numbers is used, in particular
in order to simulate
mutations. This means (as well as
in the case of simulation of biological evolution - see part
2) that it
is necessary to make many program launchings to get
reliable conclusions.
Every realization gives own "human history" including final human
population number. In the Figure 8 one can see these numbers for
different realizations and for several sets of parameters. All diagrams demonstrate bimodal
character what resembles the behavior of complicated systems with bifurcations
and probably with anticipatory
properties (Nikolis,
Prigogin, 1977).
It
is interesting also that the people migrations in every realization are geographically
different and we can see along simulated evolution some transient structures of “states” and “nations”.
This looks like “diffusive chaos” (Dubois, 1998) after some types of
bifurcations happened.
Although any single realization
can't help to describe or predict concrete ways of human history, nevertheless
it is possible to formulate some general regularities of the human development.
Firstly
obviously, that intensive way of the civilization development leads usually to fast
exhaustion of planetary resources and as result to the decrease of the human
population number, not to mention destruction of environment. Although the social phenomena was not simulated here but not difficult
to arrive at a conclusion that so called "technocratic"
paradigm, which implies self-regulation of development, isn't satisfactory
when we begin to
take into consideration the interests of concrete people and living nature. Humanity needs seemingly another paradigm of development when just man
controls technology but not conversely.

Figure
8. Final human population numbers in different cases of
the simulated conditions. Every diagram gives set of results which were
obtained for several realizations with identical initial parameters: A - fast
evolutionary changes, B - technical development is restricted, C - migrations
are restricted, D - technical development and migrations are restricted.
Secondly, one
can see that some
outputs of last
simulation model look like results for biological
evolution but with corresponding corrections of terminology. For example, the
ethno-diversity as well as biodiversity is important factors of survival
along evolution. In other words, some known regularities of biological evolution, including given
at the end of part 2.2, which are based on the gene mutations, can be translated into the language for the case of evolution
on the basis of the meme
mutations. May be, we meet here with some general rules of evolution - this is
quite natural inference (Levchenko, 2004; Menshutkin, 1995; Menshutkin,
Natochin, Chernigovskaya, 1992). Then, if to understand the perfection of rules of behavior as one of the outcomes of
cognition, not difficult to see that evolution on the basis of genetic changes is “pre-intelligent”
way of that. Of course,
more late mechanisms of informational exchange by means of memes give new
substantial possibilities for cognitive activity.
One more of common conclusions, which can be also gotten from outcomes
of above simulations, concerns important role of evolutionary restrictions, including cultural ones. If they define such directions of evolution when
“symbiotic” interrelations of human sub-populations and environment are
maintained, then the evolution is going along “calm” way. But if the
restrictions are absent or insufficient then we come to situation, which looks like the ecosystem
collapse (part 2.3). On the other hand, strong restrictions
are
hampering evolutionary process and, thus, reduce
adaptive possibilities what isn't good in evolutionary context. All this suggests an idea to some optimal sets of parameters (e.g. level of above restrictions, probability of migrations and cultural mutations) have to exist to provide maximal rapidity of scientific and technical progress.
At that, the
same rapidity can be provided by different
sets of parameters i.e. in the framework of different cultures.
Very intense informational exchange,
which we can see on the last steps of the human history (when radio and
Internet have arisen),
catalyzes processes of generating
of new memes. In particular, the exchange promotes discussions about future of
humanity and, thus, contributes
to creation of new paradigms of human development. The control of own future implies
anticipatory activity,
so one can suppose that acceleration of informational exchange leads to
the appearance
of new form of life organization on the planet.
4 Conclusions
Our
experience demonstrates
that the “computer game” method can be unique
instrument for
evolutionary investigations
especially if
to take into consideration that we are not able
to observe real evolution in living matter. The experiments allow us to
understand better some important factors, which can influence the development of life in the planet. Among them there are, for example, soft competition, descendant re-immigration,
some evolutionary restrictions and other factors, which were discussed in
the article. The development of computer technologies gives
surely new possibility for
this field of evolutionary studies.
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